A brand new Trump administration, a brand new nation Trump needs to pressure to be the 51st state.
In 2019, Donald Trump tried to buy Greenland from Denmark, an absurd provide the Danish authorities rejected. And whereas a state of Greenland lives on in Trump’s coronary heart—on Tuesday, he floated taking it by force—his eyes have drifted westward as nicely, to the Nice White North.
“Many individuals in Canada LOVE being the 51st State,” Trump wrote Monday on his Fact Social platform. “If Canada merged with the U.S., there could be no Tariffs, taxes would go manner down, and they might be TOTALLY SECURE from the specter of the Russian and Chinese language Ships which are continually surrounding them. Collectively, what an amazing Nation it will be!!!”
However this wasn’t only a fleeting thought fired off from the john. In early December, Trump referred to the Canadian prime minister as “Governor Justin Trudeau of the Nice State of Canada.” And on Christmas Day, Trump wrote his belated listing for Santa, saying he needed Canada, Greenland, and the Panama Canal underneath his tree. (Santa gave him the coal shoulder.)
After all, as Trudeau himself put it on Tuesday, “There isn’t a snowball’s likelihood in hell that Canada would change into a part of america.”
But when we deal with Trump critically, what would the state of Canada appear to be?
Properly, for one factor, it will make it loads tougher for Republicans to win management of Washington.
Wait, Canada has how many political events?
Canada has two main political events (the Conservative and Liberal events), two close-to-major events (the New Democratic Occasion and the Bloc Québécois), and a scattering of others, such because the left-leaning Inexperienced Occasion and the far-right Folks’s Occasion of Canada. Solely 5 events—all of these listed above, besides the PPC—have representation in Parliament.
These events don’t map completely onto the U.S.’s Democratic and Republican events, nonetheless. Whereas the Liberal Occasion, New Democratic Occasion, and Bloc Québécois are all on the left facet of the political spectrum, the Conservative Occasion would seem to many Individuals as if Maine Sen. Susan Collins, a Republican average, had her personal occasion. (Canadians, in case you’re studying this, I do know the comparability is imperfect. Don’t electronic mail me!)
Canada’s Conservatives prefer to cut taxes, are extra skeptical of climate change, and help different right-leaning insurance policies, however its 2023 platform additionally says it “won’t help any laws to manage abortion” and can help a “common, public well being care system”—insurance policies that sound to those American ears as left-leaning. That being stated, the Conservatives do prefer some types of health privatization, and there are indicators the occasion is drifting to the right.
Who would Canadians vote for?
Canadians who again the Conservative Occasion doubtless wouldn’t be within the tank for America’s MAGAfied GOP.
Leger, a well-rated Canadian-owned pollster, repeatedly surveys Canadians about U.S. elections, and its information reveals they strongly favor Democrats. Within the 2024 election, 64% would’ve voted for Harris and solely 21% for Trump. That will’ve been Harris’ best result in any state (with the exception being the district of Washington, D.C.), simply beating out Vermont.
And amongst Canadians who again the Conservative Occasion? They’re fairly cut up: 42% would’ve gone for Harris and 45% for Trump.
That choice holds throughout elections too. Within the 2022 midterms, 42% of Canadians would’ve backed a Democratic candidate, whereas solely 14% would’ve backed a Republican, in line with Leger’s polling. (The “don’t know” choice got here in No. 2, at 33%.) And the 2020 election confirmed an excellent deeper margin: 81% of Canadians would’ve voted for Joe Biden, in contrast with simply 19% for Trump.
In truth, essentially the most pro-GOP Canadians seem like those that pledge allegiance to the perimeter Folks’s Occasion of Canada, founded in 2018. The PPC’s platform consists of “deporting illegals,” combating “gender ideology,” and different normal Republican culture-war fare. Hell, the PPC’s web site even traffics in eye-rolling epithets like “radical woke activists.” So it is smart that 66% of PPC-backing Canadians would’ve gone for Trump in 2024, in line with Leger’s poll. That stated, a surprising 22% would’ve backed Harris.
Altogether, the state of Canada would doubtless be among the many most Democratic within the union.
So what would that imply?
Tipping the scales
Canada has roughly 41.5 million people, in line with the latest authorities information. That’s about 2 million greater than California, which might make the state of Canada by far the most important prize within the Electoral School.
How large? Electoral votes are derived from a sum of a state’s Home and Senate seats. Canada would pull in 48 Home seats, in line with 2020 U.S. census figures and the Census Bureau’s formula for calculating reapportionment. Including within the two normal Senate seats means the state of Canada would have an enormous 50 electoral votes.
Worse for Republicans, these votes would disproportionately come from states that backed Trump in 2024. Twenty-eight votes would’ve come from Trump states and 20 from Harris states. And but, if the state of Canada had gone for Harris (as anticipated), it wouldn’t have been sufficient to shut the hole for her. Trump would’ve pulled in 284 electoral votes to Harris’ 256.
Wanting downballot, there are large positive aspects for Democrats. If Democrats pulled in 64% of Canada’s anticipated 48 Home seats—i.e., the identical share that backed Harris within the Leger ballot—Democrats would pull in 31 seats to Republicans’ 17, a web achieve of 14. That’s more than enough to flip the chamber.
After all, the mathematics right here is much from good. For one factor, congressional map strains would play the most important position in figuring out which occasion picks up essentially the most Home seats. And it’s as straightforward to think about Republicans narrowing that 31-17 hole as it’s to think about Canadian Democrats wringing much more seats out of the state through gerrymandering.
As for the Senate—nicely, Canada’s two senators, virtually certainly Democrats, wouldn’t put the occasion into the bulk. As an alternative of the current 53-47 Republican majority, we’d be 53-49. However that would imply Democrats want two fewer Republican defections to sink a invoice (if the White Home have been underneath Republican management).
Once more, there’s no likelihood within the foreseeable future that Canada will change into the 51st state, however, fortunate for Democrats, there are far better options to develop the union—and their caucus.
