Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman spent virtually twenty years as a comparatively low-profile member of Saudi Arabia’s Opec delegation. However since turning into the primary royal to function the dominion’s oil minister in 2019, he has made a reputation for himself, although not one among his selecting: merchants have lately taken to calling him the “prickly prince”.
From beginning oil worth wars with Russia in 2020 to contributing to strained US-Saudi relations final yr, Prince Abdulaziz has been an assertive steward of the dominion’s oil coverage, however one beset by a thin-skinned tendency to react to slights.
To supporters, he’s a logo of a extra assured Saudi Arabia below the de facto management of his half-brother, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. They imagine Prince Abdulaziz has received lots of the massive market calls proper, reinforcing Saudi affect over the oil market and its Opec+ alliance with Moscow, which has endured regardless of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
To the prince’s detractors, nonetheless, he tends to overplay his hand and decide pointless fights that make his central position of managing the oil worth, on which the dominion’s financial hopes relaxation, tougher.
The newest forceful transfer got here this week when a swath of journalists, together with your complete groups from Reuters and Bloomberg, had been banned from an important assembly set to happen on Sunday at Opec’s Vienna headquarters. It’s the first time that Opec, by a long time of wars, worth spikes and crashes, has excluded information organisations en masse.
The choice by Prince Abdulaziz stemmed, individuals near the minister stated, from his notion that his market view was not being given a good airing. He believed this was contributing to the autumn within the benchmark Brent crude worth in direction of $70 a barrel over latest weeks. However the determination additionally mirrored, they stated, a royal temperament unaccustomed to criticism and to not getting his personal manner.
But turning on the press has been seen by some as an indication of desperation. As Saudi Arabia struggles to bend the oil market to its will, with costs falling regardless of two manufacturing cuts in eight months, resorting to blaming the messenger doesn’t encourage confidence.
Raad Alkadiri, a veteran Opec-watcher at Eurasia Group, stated a part of Saudi Arabia’s annoyance stemmed from what it noticed as a mismatch between the underlying fundamentals of the market — which Opec can affect — and dealer sentiment, which is a more durable beast to corral.
“You may argue Opec+ have managed the market fairly effectively, however there’s simply an utter frustration that the success of the administration of the basics is being hammered again and again by sentiment,” Alkadiri stated. “That makes it tough for Opec to strengthen its credibility.”
For these near the prince, there was a way of disappointment. Many had projected a powerful oil market that will enhance the revenues that Crown Prince Mohammed must implement his financial reforms. Saudi Arabia requires an oil worth above $80 a barrel with a view to stability its finances, in line with the IMF, and fund a number of the “giga-projects” the crown prince hopes can remodel its financial system.
Outstanding figures equivalent to vitality hedge fund supervisor Pierre Andurand predicted at first of the yr that costs would exceed $100 a barrel as China’s financial system reopened. The Worldwide Power Company and Opec itself additionally mission that the market will tighten considerably within the second half of 2023, which ought to enhance costs.
However merchants appear unwilling to imagine it. Costs have rallied just for temporary durations, equivalent to when Opec and its allies introduced a shock voluntary manufacturing minimize in April, solely to slide decrease once more.
That minimize was straight from the playbook of Prince Abdulaziz, who likes to maintain the market on its toes, an strategy some see as being at odds with Opec’s need to be a steadying “central financial institution of oil”.
Merchants might be watching carefully this weekend to see whether or not Prince Abdulaziz pushes for an extra manufacturing minimize or different measures to prop up the value, or if the group adopts a “wait and see” strategy. The latter appeared most definitely solely every week in the past, in line with analysts and Opec delegates, however the likelihood of motion has elevated after costs slipped decrease once more in latest days.
“All the pieces is below dialogue,” stated one senior Opec delegate from the Gulf. “Nonetheless nothing is evident.”
Ministers from Opec met briefly on Saturday afternoon, forward of the Opec+ assembly — which can embody Russia and different allies — the place manufacturing coverage might be determined. Opec delegates stated a minimize of as much as 1mn barrels a day would in all probability be mentioned on Sunday, however nothing had been agreed upon.
Prince Abdulaziz’s solely remark to the press on Saturday was to comment on the positive climate in Vienna. He left Opec’s headquarters smiling and holding arms with the UAE minister, Suhail al Mazrouei.
Whereas individuals near Prince Abdulaziz say he has typically remained in good spirits, together with his dry humour on show, he has taken to lashing out. He warned brief sellers betting towards the oil worth — who he as soon as stated could be “ouching like hell” in the event that they doubted him — to “be careful” as soon as once more final month.
He then laid into the IEA, a bunch that Opec has spent years fostering dialogue with to search out frequent floor between oil producers and shoppers, describing it as having a “particular expertise” for getting forecasts incorrect.
The hazard for Saudi Arabia, merchants say, is that Prince Abdulaziz has now in impact thrown down the gauntlet to grease speculators. If he doesn’t push for one more manufacturing minimize, then costs might fall additional.
If Saudi Arabia does lead Opec into cuts, there isn’t a assure that Russia will comply with, as Moscow tries to maintain its exports going regardless of a swath of western measures designed to limit the vitality revenues flowing into its conflict chest.
“Additional oil worth declines in direction of $70 a barrel for Brent might enhance the chance of an extra minimize by some Opec+ members . . . although Russia is unlikely to be one among them,” stated analysts at Citigroup.
One possibility is to change manufacturing baselines — the utmost stage nations can produce at, from which the scale of particular person manufacturing cuts is derived — for Opec+ members, in line with two individuals near the talks.
The United Arab Emirates has bristled in the recent past at what it believes to be a manufacturing baseline that underestimates its actual output capability. A better baseline would strengthen its place in Opec long-term, even when it agreed to chop additional for now. Some analysts imagine the difficulty is simply too contentious for Prince Abdulaziz to sort out, nonetheless, and that will probably be pushed again.
“I don’t envy Opec this weekend,” stated Alkadiri of Eurasia Group. “They’re caught between a rock and a tough place.”
