Everyone seems to be ready for Ukraine’s spring summer season counteroffensive to start, however none extra so than the Russians, who’re so jumpy that they claimed a small probing motion in Zaporizhzhia oblast was the start (and finish) of the anticipated Ukrainian motion. Let’s check out the place issues stand.
To start with, Ukraine is telling folks to … shush.
We’ll distinction that quiet confidence with shit-show that’s Russia in a second, however first a phrase about what silence means in operational safety (OpSec).
It doesn’t imply that individuals don’t repost video clips, or geolocate them.
If Russia posts a video, they know that 1) no matter is depicted passed off, and a pair of) the place it passed off.
If Ukraine posts a video, it’s okay with that video being launched. The troopers and airmen with entry to these movies know what the OpSec guidelines are. And as you’ll usually see, in the event that they don’t need the video geolocated, they’ll blur any background figuring out options. They’re fairly conscious of the sport.
You will notice folks complain on Twitter, Telegram, or proper right here at Day by day Kos when such movies are posted, misunderstanding the scenario. Ukraine doesn’t need the locals posting movies of their troop actions, or just about any battlefield info that would endanger the troops. But when it’s on Twitter, the place most of us see these items, it’s already been seen by tens of millions on Telegram, the place the Russians truly hang around.
Getting again to Ukraine’s quiet confidence, let’s distinction that with the chaos of the Russian facet. There was a lot chaos this weekend.
Wagner Group mercenaries truly acquired in a firefight with a Russian military unit, captured its commander, a lieutenant colonel, broke his nostril in indicators of torture, then filmed him admitting to focusing on Wagner out of “private animosity.”
Wagner CEO Yevgeny Prigozhin should be feeling fairly untouchable to not simply kidnap and beat a Russian military officer, however to publish it on-line. You may get extra on the Wagner-Russian Ministry of Protection feud in this thread by a Ukrainian intelligence officer. As a number of folks joked as we speak (so not my joke), we could also be attending to a spot the place Russia isn’t even the second finest Military in Ukraine!
Equally, Wagner’s feud with pro-Moscow Chechen Kadyrovites is escalating, with a not-so-veiled menace posted on Wagner Telegram accounts. The meme encompasses a image of bombed out Grozny, the capital of Chechnya, with the caption: “Grozny, Chechnya 2000. We are able to repeat.”
In the meantime, pro-Ukrainian Russian forces and a few Polish international legionaries have truly occupied a few border settlement on the Russian facet of the border in Belgorod. No, they’re not marching on Moscow, they usually may’ve retreated again to Ukraine by the point you learn this, however they’re actually making Russian dictator Vladimir Putin look impotent. Russia should both peels troops away from the Ukrainian entrance traces to cease these border excursions, or the Russian authorities retains wanting the idiot as these marauders romp by way of the Russian countryside, taking part in whack-a-mole up and down that lengthy border. This time, they even grabbed a few Russian POWs.
Kadyrovite chief Ramzan Kadyrov, recent off promising to ship troops to Bakhmut that by no means arrived, is now providing to safe Russia’s northern border.
To be clear, Kadyrov doesn’t have 70,000 troops. Most estimates are round 10-12,000, of which solely round 10% ever deployed to Ukraine. (When deployed, they largely posted TikTok movies of themselves capturing at site visitors lights and random empty buildings.) They actually aren’t Spetsnaz—Russian particular forces. Russia solely has 17,000 of these, minus no matter they’ve misplaced in Ukraine.
If Kadyrov had 70,000 Spetsnaz, he’d be capable to declare independence and there’d be nothing Moscow might do about it. Principally seemingly, he noticed Prigozhin’s provide to safe the Belgorod border, and he determined he couldn’t be upstaged by his fierce nemesis.
I want they’d simply settle all of it on the battlefield—it might be the last word expression of Russian poisonous masculinity.
Russia claimed the Ukrainian counteroffensive began today in southern Ukraine, Zaporizhzhia oblast, they usually crushed it! It’s over!
On the morning of June 4, the enemy launched a large-scale offensive in 5 sectors of the entrance within the South Donetsk course by introducing into battle 23 and 31 mechanized brigades from the strategic reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with the help of different navy items and subunits.
In complete, six mechanized and two tank battalions of the enemy had been concerned […]
On account of the skillful and competent actions of the Japanese Group of Forces, the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine amounted to greater than 250 personnel, 16 tanks, three infantry combating automobiles, 21 armored combating automobiles.
Truly, one thing is taking place. Russia even launched blurry video of what appears to be 9-10 stalled armored automobiles, together with a number of on fireplace. It actually doesn’t present 37 automobiles on fireplace. The video was geolocated within the course of Mariupol, 1.2 kms contained in the final assumed entrance traces. simply west of Velika Novosilka. Ukraine released its own video claiming to point out Ukrainian tanks destroying a Russian one. However truthfully, I can’t inform what’s happening in that video.
Nonetheless, Russian Telegram sources admit that Ukraine did handle to liberate settlements in that space, each at Novodarivka, and maybe even at Neskuchne:
For context, right here is the place we’re on the map, pulled again:
A Russian commander of the pro-Russian Donetsk militia, Alexander Khodakovsky, claims Ukraine took territory, took losses (because the video linked above would counsel), and—importantly—that this isn’t truly the large counteroffensive.
On the Velikonovoselkovsky course, the enemy is attempting to interrupt by way of. Having grouped his shock fist, within the first half of the day he was capable of obtain tactical success – he took one place from us, however suffered tangible losses. Now the enemy is increase his presence within the breakthrough sector – clearly, he’s striving to extend his achievements.
Neither motion within the north within the course of Novaya Tavolzhanka, nor motion within the south is in itself the promised counter-offensive, however within the occasion of a breakthrough, extra important forces may very well be transferred to the positioning.
This might ge just like the localized counteroffensive in Bakhmut’s flanks—territory regained on the initiative of native commanders. Or this may very well be probing actions, testing out Russia’s defenses and looking for weak spots alongside the traces. Or it may very well be a diversion, the best way Ukraine signaled a Kherson offensive final September, when the true goal was Kharkiv’s liberation.
Which is it? Nobody is aware of exterior a small group of individuals in Ukraine. All we will do is wait. Personally, I received’t imagine the counteroffensive has began till we see Leopard foremost battle tanks on the prowl.
