In 2014, Toyota’s then-president Akio Toyoda mentioned he had “seen the longer term” and that the discharge of the Mirai, the corporate’s flagship hydrogen automobile, would mark a “turning level” for the automotive business.
After promoting simply 27,500 hydrogen automobiles over the next decade, the world’s greatest carmaker is now not so sure. “I can’t say for certain that it’s a vivid future for hydrogen,” Hiroki Nakajima, chief expertise officer at Toyota, advised reporters on the Fuji Speedway racetrack in Japan in November.
However at the same time as most different main carmakers have gone full in on EVs, Toyota believes that in the end hydrogen will nonetheless carve out a big position in decarbonising transport.
“If we hand over on this expertise, then we threat giving up on the longer term,” mentioned Nakajima.
As a part of a pivot to hydrogen-powered vehicles, buses and vans, Toyota unveiled a prototype hydrogen-electric hybrid van in November, which it says is the primary of its type and shall be examined in Australia.
Toyota can also be working with Isuzu Motors to mass produce a light-duty hydrogen gasoline cell truck later this decade and has secured offers to produce hydrogen buses in Tokyo, Strasbourg and Madrid.
“On all ranges, hydrogen has been a failure for passenger automobiles,” mentioned James Hong, head of Asia power transition and commodities at Macquarie Capital. “The place we nonetheless haven’t acquired a solution but is on business automobile or stationary power storage demand.”
Hydrogen gasoline cells generate electrical energy by way of chemical reactions between hydrogen and oxygen, leaving nothing however water vapour popping out of the tailpipe. In addition to producing zero carbon emissions, hydrogen-powered automobiles are faster to refuel than EVs and, for heavy automobiles, have an extended driving vary.
Regardless of authorities help in international locations around the globe, the hydrogen ecosystem stays small, with few massive initiatives to provide the gasoline reaching development.
Consequently, hydrogen gasoline cells usually are not mass-produced and prices have stayed excessive. A hydrogen model of Toyota’s upmarket Crown automotive mannequin prices ¥1mn ($6,500) multiple geared up with a brand new hybrid system.
In the meantime, costs of EVs have been pushed down by fierce competitors in China and breakthroughs in battery expertise. “Once you now have a expertise that already works, is tremendous low-cost, and is nice sufficient — lithium-ion batteries — you must query the need for investing in an entire new provide chain,” mentioned Sam Adham, analyst on the CRU Group consultancy.
Toyota is making an attempt to encourage hydrogen adoption by way of its truckmaking subsidiary Hino Motors. In 2023, Hino and rival Mitsubishi Fuso Truck and Bus Company mentioned they have been merging to “search economies of scale” and concentrate on hydrogen. Nonetheless, the deal has been delayed, with the businesses citing regulatory approvals wanted and a certification scandal.
The corporate has teamed up with different rivals to share improvement prices, mirroring broader alliances being struck throughout the business to struggle again towards Chinese language competitors. It has fashioned or is discussing pacts with South Korea’s Hyundai and Germany’s BMW, each of which have made important investments in hydrogen-powered automobiles.
“Just a few years in the past, individuals have been extra constructive about hydrogen for vehicles and buses,” mentioned Anne-Sophie Corbeau, a hydrogen professional on the Centre of International Power Coverage.
“Will probably be a query of value and the provision of vehicles and buses. The jury remains to be out, however yearly, the electrical answer is gaining a bonus.”
Lee Ho-geun, professor of future automobiles at Daeduk College, mentioned that Hyundai made a lack of Won30mn ($22,000) on each unit of its flagship hydrogen Nexo SUV, regardless of receiving Won36mn in authorities subsidies on every automobile.
Nonetheless, it nonetheless made sense for the businesses to pursue hydrogen automobile improvement in the long run due to the proprietary applied sciences it had already developed, he mentioned.
“Margins on EV gross sales will at all times be restricted by the necessity to purchase or license battery expertise from different firms, whereas with hydrogen automobiles they don’t must pay any royalties,” mentioned Lee.
An absence of fuelling infrastructure in Japan and overseas stays a difficulty. Oil main Shell introduced final February that it might shut all of its hydrogen refuelling stations in California, the state the place gasoline cells are hottest within the US. In response, Mirai house owners filed a class-action lawsuit towards the corporate in July for deceptive them on the provision of hydrogen gasoline.
The failure of hydrogen-powered automobiles to go mainstream has not solely been a setback for Toyota and Hyundai after pouring billions of {dollars} into the expertise, but additionally for Japan and Korea, which have pinned their decarbonisation technique on the gasoline.
Toyota has mentioned it must roll out its hydrogen merchandise in co-ordination with authorities initiatives to roll out infrastructure for the choice gasoline. “This isn’t a rooster and egg drawback. It’s extra like the connection between honey and a bee,” mentioned Nakajima, explaining that automobiles and infrastructure wanted to be delivered concurrently.
Regardless of the setbacks, Toyota insiders mentioned they’d not given up on hydrogen for passenger automobiles, with Toyoda discussing a partnership final October together with his counterpart at conventional rival Hyundai to advance gasoline cell automobiles.
They drew parallels to the last decade of endurance wanted earlier than hybrid gross sales took off and validated their guess on the Prius, which was first bought in 1997.
“That is what Toyota does,” mentioned Hong. “It’s large enough to maintain a number of bets, even those who have a low likelihood of paying off.”
