Survey Says is a weekly collection rounding up crucial polling developments or knowledge factors you might want to find out about, plus a vibe test on a pattern that’s driving politics or tradition.
Republican Matt Van Epps won a Tennessee House special election on Tuesday to fill the seat vacated by Rep. Mark Inexperienced, who resigned in July. At first look, it’s a win for the GOP—however the margins reveal a more complicated story than a easy Republican maintain.
Van Epps defeated Democrat Aftyn Behn by a mere 9 percentage points. In 2024, Inexperienced gained the district by nearly 22 points, and President Donald Trump carried it by roughly the same margin over Democrat Kamala Harris.
In different phrases, the district swung 13 factors towards Democrats in a 12 months, a shift that ought to increase alarms for Republicans, particularly in districts Trump gained by single digits.
“The margins had been narrowed in each county within the district,” even when Democrats didn’t win those self same counties outright, Kent Syler, a professor of political science at Center Tennessee State College, advised Every day Kos. “If you’re attempting to beat a 20-plus proportion margin, it’s onerous to reverse it completely, however there have been vital beneficial properties, and it continued the pattern of Democrats overperforming in elections this 12 months.”
The race unfolded shortly. Van Epps was sworn in lower than 48 hours after outcomes had been licensed—a fast tempo compared with Democratic Rep. Adelita Grijalva, whose swearing-in took weeks. But the pace of official proceedings belied the competition’s competitiveness, which noticed Democrats making notable inroads in counties lengthy thought of solidly Republican.
Turnout in Tennessee’s seventh District was unusually excessive for a particular election, approaching midterm ranges. Roughly 179,899 people voted—simply shy of the 180,822 ballots forged in 2022. But Van Epps obtained roughly 11,400 fewer votes than Inexperienced did in 2022, suggesting a drop in Republican enthusiasm and a surge in Democratic mobilization.
As a result of it was an off-year particular election, polling was limited. However of the few polls launched earlier than Tuesday, most carefully tracked the ultimate outcomes.
The lone exception was an Emerson Faculty survey, which had Van Epps edging out a win by simply 2 factors. In any other case, the surveys landed near the ultimate outcome, a small however welcome win for pollsters in a sort of race that’s notoriously onerous to gauge.
The result’s in line with a broader pattern in 2025: Democrats overperforming in particular elections and low-turnout contests. The 13-point swing in Tennessee’s seventh is barely beneath the 17-point average on this 12 months’s congressional particular elections however is on par with beneficial properties in downballot state legislative contests.
“Anytime you’re a member of the occasion of the president in a midterm, try to be naturally fearful in marginal districts,” Syler advised Every day Kos. “The nation continues to be in a nasty temper, and the primary individual voters blame is the incumbent president. You possibly can see it in [former President Joe] Biden’s low approval rankings, and Trump’s are low, too. That’s scary for Republicans in these districts.”
Cash poured into the race. Roughly $6 million was spent, with Republicans outspending Democrats by about $3.5 million to $2.5 million. But Van Epps’ slender margin alerts that cash alone is inadequate to ensure a protected GOP maintain, significantly in districts with energized Democratic bases.
Democrats noticed notable beneficial properties within the district’s city and suburban counties, like Montgomery and Williamson. And whereas they nonetheless improved on their 2024 margins throughout the map, rural areas remained firmly Republican.
“Democrats have to start out being extra aggressive and truly successful in non-urban areas,” Syler mentioned. “The agricultural downside is a nationwide downside, and that’s bought to be addressed.”
In districts like Tennessee’s seventh, suburban shifts could make or break shut races, even when rural areas proceed to pattern proper.
Candidate choice shall be essential for Democrats heading into 2026. Behn, a former progressive organizer who beat a number of extra reasonable Democrats within the major, was hit with a wave of Trump-aligned tremendous PAC adverts resurfacing old clips of her calling herself “a really radical individual.” She argues these feedback had been taken out of context, although Syler famous that her progressive profile probably boosted turnout in city pockets whereas making it harder to connect with voters in additional rural elements of the district.
“Her margins had been unbelievable in locations the place there have been Democrats,” Syler mentioned. “I don’t know {that a} reasonable may’ve gotten any higher, however Democrats have gotten to have the ability to enhance their numbers in suburban and rural areas.”
“Progressives,” he added, are “promoting one thing that’s more durable for suburban and rural voters to purchase.”
The excessive turnout additionally alerts a reinvigorated Democratic base. Earlier this 12 months, many pundits steered Democrats were disengaged, however the sturdy displaying in Tennessee factors to a motivated, organized citizens.
“There’s little doubt that the Democratic base is fired up. That’s what occurs while you’re out of energy, and also you’re mad, and I’m sure that enthusiasm will carry ahead to 2026,” Syler mentioned. “The truth that this election grew to become such a narrative and so aggressive and had a lot cash spent on it’s actually outstanding. Going into this, everybody thought the Republican major would determine who would in the end win the race, however this race simply exploded.”
Traditionally, particular elections can act as bellwethers. Within the 2017-18 cycle, Democrats beat benchmarks in particular elections by about 11 points earlier than successful the Home fashionable vote by almost 9 points within the 2018 midterm elections. Tennessee’s seventh mirrors that sample: a large swing leftward in a beforehand protected district, signaling early momentum for Democrats as they give the impression of being to 2026.
The outcomes reduce each methods: a warning gentle for Republicans and a welcome little bit of reassurance for Democrats. Districts that after appeared comfortably purple are displaying some slippage, and even locations that backed Trump by huge numbers could also be extra aggressive than they give the impression of being on paper.
Because the 2026 midterms method, Tennessee’s seventh gives a blueprint of the political terrain forward—excessive stakes, energized voters, and an citizens more and more keen to defy expectations.
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It’s not just Latino voters drifting from Trump. Even elements of his MAGA base are wincing after he accused a number of Democratic lawmakers of sedition and steered they need to be put to dying. A brand new ballot from The Economist/YouGov discovered solely 60% of Trump’s 2024 voters assist his feedback, whereas 29% disapprove—unusually giant dissent for a gaggle that hardly ever opposes him. It’s an early signal that even his most loyal supporters have limits. And the set off was hardly radical: A brief video from six Democratic lawmakers noting that “Nobody has to hold out orders that violate the regulation or our Structure.”
Vibe test
Tucked contained in the latest Economist/YouGov poll is an intriguing experiment that requested Individuals to determine whether or not a collection of coverage statements had been liberal or conservative.
And it seems, a superb slice of the citizens can’t reliably inform the 2 aside. About 1 in 10 Individuals routinely mislabels historically liberal statements as conservative. For instance, 11% say that “Navy spending ought to be elevated” is a liberal assertion, regardless of the Republican Celebration historically main that cost.
However the confusion isn’t confined to at least one aspect of the aisle. Fourteen p.c of Democrats and 11% of Republicans establish the “army spending” assertion as liberal. Normally, Individuals in each events misattribute statements at related charges.
What’s extra revealing is what the mislabels say about individuals’s ideological instincts. In some instances, conservatives acknowledge a view as “liberal” however nonetheless assist it, suggesting their self-identification doesn’t all the time map onto their precise coverage preferences.
Take the road “Taxes ought to be raised on the rich.” Two-thirds of Individuals (66%) accurately classify it as liberal, whereas 10% name it conservative. But the concept itself is broadly fashionable. The Pew Research Center reported in March that 58% of Individuals need to increase taxes on households making $400,000 or extra yearly—and that features 43% of Republicans. That disconnect hints at a deeper stress between ideological branding and coverage beliefs.
The identical sample reveals up on environmental protections. “The atmosphere ought to be protected towards air pollution” is taken into account a liberal view by 56% of Individuals within the Economist/YouGov ballot, whereas 13% think about it a conservative assertion. However earlier this 12 months, Gallup discovered Individuals siding with defending the atmosphere over prioritizing financial development, 54% to 38%—one other occasion wherein a piece of conservatives could assist a coverage they label as belonging to the opposite aspect.
One outcome stands out for the way neatly it clashes with immediately’s political rhetoric. “Spending ought to be reduce on Social Safety” is tagged as a conservative view by 49%, whereas 14% think about it liberal. But Gallup reveals most Individuals don’t need Social Safety cuts—and Trump has gone out of his way to vow he gained’t contact this system, if solely to keep away from angering older voters.
However Trump could also be an anomaly. Previous Republican presidents spent years attempting to trim or privatize Social Safety, and high-profile conservatives show little respect for this system, which probably retains the affiliation alive in voters’ minds.
Andrew Mangan contributed analysis.
