The argument for sweeping presidential immunity hits rough seas

Greg Sargent/The New Republic:

How Trump’s Unhinged Immunity Demand May Unleash a Second-Time period Crime Spree

If the courts resolve that rebel deserves immunity, and Trump wins again the presidency, what would possibly he really feel emboldened to do in time period two?

This has been broadly depicted as a Hail Mary effort to scuttle particular counsel Jack Smith’s prosecution of Trump for conspiracy to hinder the official continuing of Congress’s depend of presidential electors—in any other case identified for practically 250 years on this nation because the peaceable switch of energy.

However there’s one other strategy to perceive Trump’s transfer: It’s about what comes subsequent. If he wins on this entrance, he’d be largely unshackled in a second presidential time period, free to pursue all method of corrupt designs with little concern of authorized penalties after leaving workplace once more.

That Trump would possibly try such strikes shouldn’t be idle hypothesis. He’s telling us so himself. He’s overtly threatening a variety of second-term actions—comparable to prosecuting political enemies with zero foundation in proof—that might virtually definitely pressure the boundaries of the legislation in ugly new methods.

Let’s hear from some legislation professors on this, beginning with Randall Eliason/Sidebars:

D.C. Circuit Skeptical of Trump’s Immunity Claims

Judges spotlight the acute penalties of Trump’s argument

Early in Sauer’s argument, Decide Pan hit him with an incredible sequence of questions that highlighted the acute penalties of his place. Trump is arguing that the impeachment judgment clause within the Structure implies that a former president could solely be criminally prosecuted if she or he was impeached and convicted for a similar or comparable conduct.

The impeachment judgment clause supplies:

Judgment in Instances of Impeachment shall not lengthen additional than to elimination from Workplace, and disqualification to carry and revel in any Workplace of honor, Belief or Revenue underneath america: however the Get together convicted shall however be liable and topic to Indictment, Trial, Judgment and Punishment, based on Regulation.

Trump’s argument is that as a result of this clause refers solely to the “celebration convicted” at impeachment being topic to later prosecution, which means, by detrimental implication, {that a} celebration who’s not convicted after impeachment can’t be prosecuted.

Lee Kovarsky/X through Threadreader:

ADDITIONAL THOUGHTS ON TODAY’S DC CIRCUIT (CADC) ARGUMENTS ON PRESIDENTIAL IMMUNITY (PI) (LAYPERSON FRIENDLY). At this time, CADC heard oral arguments on whether or not DJT has PI for 1/6, in particular reference to Jack Smith’s prosecution in DC. Trump virtually definitely misplaced 3-0.

The judges have been Henderson (R-appointed), Childs (Biden), and Pan (Biden). The main points have been as follows.

Jonathan V Last/The Bulwark:

This May Be the Excessive-Water Mark of Trumpism

An argument for why Trump’s numbers can’t get significantly better and Biden’s numbers are possible to enhance.

[Mark] Halperin then says that Biden’s three massive issues are:

1. That he’s taking part in from behind as an incumbent, which units a media narrative towards him.

2. That Republicans have shortly and decisively rallied to Trump.

3. That elements of the Obama coalition—black, Hispanic, and younger voters—haven’t (but?) rallied to Biden.

I barely disagree with Halperin on the significance of #1 and what he calls the Dominant Media. My very own view is that journalists are inclined to overdetermine the affect of the media in electoral politics.

However nevertheless a lot weight you wish to give this issue, Halperin is directionally appropriate: As a result of Biden is trailing Trump, the media slant is at all times one thing like, “Unemployment is 3.9%; Right here’s Why That’s Dangerous for Biden.”

And the one method that’s going to flip is that if Biden strikes forward within the polling.

As for #2 and #3, these are vectors alongside which Biden can fairly hope to enhance and Trump most likely can not.

As an illustration: I might posit to you that, over the following month, we might be approaching the high-water mark for Trump’s ballot numbers.

Brian Beutler/Off Message:

We Cannot Afford Weak-Kneed Liberalism In The Trump Period Honest objections to disqualifying Trump from the poll are reasoned backward from misplaced concern

The obvious weak spot right here is that Republicans are actual adults, making choices for themselves, with a mixture of actual and pretend info, and the truth that their chief engaged in rebel and would possibly thus be disqualified from workplace was not hidden from them at any level. They known as it an rebel. They acknowledged Trump’s culpability. Then they determined to reanoint him as their chief. This strikes me as Their Downside, not Our Downside.

Marc Jacob/”Cease The Presses” on Substack:

Media play dumb and amplify Jan. 6 lies

When journalists sidestep the reality, MAGA disinformation wins

On Thursday, the Related Press wrote this both-sides headline: “One attack, two interpretations: Biden and Trump both make the Jan. 6 riot a political rallying cry.”

On Sunday, USA Today chimed in with this outrageous lead: “For Donald Trump, Jan. 6, 2021, was ‘a ravishing day.’ For Joe Biden, it was the day ‘we practically misplaced America.’” After which USA At this time proceeded with a narrative that acted as if it didn’t know which view was extra legitimate.

In between these two examples of performative ignorance, the New York Instances weighed in with its own “dueling realities” spin:

These information shops know who’s telling the reality and who’s mendacity. However they’re afraid to inform the general public instantly. Within the Instances’ case, its headline received roasted on social media (together with by me), and was later rewritten:

Listed here are your dueling New Hampshire polls:

Ron Desantis is tanking within the polls. However, after all, the one polls that matter are on election day. Losers at all times say that earlier than they lose.