The primary story is that of Wagner Group PMC (non-public army contractor). They’ve been pushing towards Bakhmut for the previous 9 months, the one Russian-aligned group that has made any advances in all of 2023. As of final evening, their forces had been just a few metropolis blocks away from claiming all the ruins of town.
Wagner has continued to achieve floor regardless of CEO Yevgeny Prigozhin’s whining of “shell starvation” and an absence of help from the Russian military. Regardless of all of the threats to retreat, Wagner continues to advance.
The second story is that of the flanks, held by common Russian military troops, supposedly “elite” VDV airborne troops, random different PMCs, and native Donetsk Folks’s Republic militia. That story is one in every of Ukrainian advances. Whereas Wagner measures its beneficial properties in metropolis blocks and particular person buildings, Ukrainian forces are rolling up Russian troops each north and south of town and recapturing (in keeping with official sources) 20 sq. kilometers of territory … with out even making an attempt a lot.
This map is floating round OSINT twitter. I’m undecided the unique supply (I’ll credit score if I discover it):
The crimson arrows are Wagner’s efforts to take the final tiny nook of Bakhmut. The blue arrows are Ukrainian efforts, the shaded blue areas are recaptured territory, and the shaded inexperienced areas are the grey zones between the 2 armies. The blue space north of Klischiivka is forest that Wagner spent 2 ½ months capturing. Ukraine obtained it again in a single day.
Russia can’t afford to lose the hills simply west of Klischiivka.
Discover that these hills slope regularly from the west, then drop steeply on their japanese edge. That makes Ukraine’s method a lot simpler (and made Wagner’s earlier method from the east a lot tougher). As soon as Ukraine takes the heights over Klischiivka, Ukraine can have line-of-sight focusing on of that city and Andriivka to its south. Take these hills east of Klischiivka, and Opytne is again in play.
Russia is reportedly throwing reinforcements into the flanks to try to stem the Ukrainian counterattack, which could really work as a result of there’s zero indication that Ukraine is dedicated to forcing an actual breakthrough. These actually appear like localized counteroffensives that turned into one thing surprising, so will Ukraine’s normal workers determine to use the state of affairs and push for Bakhmut’s encircling? It’s possible a tempting thought. VDV are calmly armored and have been repeatedly bruised up this battle. They wouldn’t maintain effectively towards a severe armored assault.
As of now, have a look at how little Ukraine is throwing into these strains.
That is one tank and possibly a handful of armored personnel carriers on this collection of movies, with small infantry squads clearing Russian trenches. Should you’re searching for a large combined-arms assault, this ain’t it. Not even shut. Right here’s one other one:
Solely a single tank is seen within the video, although these infantry possible rode in on an armored infantry automobile of some type. Once more, these are small pushes, they usually’re having ridiculous success. Another:
Hilariously, Russia’s ministry of protection claimed that “The AFU [Armed Forces of Ukraine] launched 26 assaults involving greater than 1,000 servicemen, as much as 40 tanks and different army and special-purpose gear.” FORTY tanks! I assume that makes it extra palatable than admitting they misplaced months value of bloody beneficial properties to an enterprising squad of go-getter Ukrainians.
Russian Telegram is freaking out.
The hazard right here is clear: If the flanks don’t maintain, Wagner’s forces in Bakhmut may very well be absolutely surrounded. But Wagner retains pushing ahead whereas the flanks crumble. It’s the craziest factor! And as we speak, Ukraine’s Basic Workers claimed that VDV airborne forces at the moment are additionally pushing inside Bakhmut! Wouldn’t or not it’s humorous if VDV and Wagner fought one another for the previous few blocks, with the intention to take credit score for taking town?
After threatening to drag out, why would Prigozhin insist on pushing ahead? With only a few metropolis blocks left, Prigozhin could merely wish to plant the flag, declare victory, after which retreat for Russian forces (these VDV?) to “maintain” the beneficial properties, which they’d do as successfully as they’re holding the flanks. He’d declare victory and rub it within the face of his archnemesis Sergei Shoigu, the minister of protection. And when Ukraine retakes town, Prigozhin can blame Shoigu once more. Who is aware of, the Chechen Kadyrovites might actually show up simply in time to get encircled. I’m nonetheless betting they by no means present.
So why is that is all consultant of Russia’s disastrous battle effort?
- Russia is fielding a number of rival armies and militias, all of them hating one another, working at cross-purposes, and refusing to talk.
- There is no such thing as a sturdy central command. Every group has its personal agenda. Wagner needs credit score for taking Bakhmut, given the sacrifice in lives to get it, and Prigozhin must shove a success in Shoigu’s face. In the meantime, Shoigu isn’t notably motivated to carry these flanks, as a result of in the event that they fall, Wagner goes bye-bye. And now, apparently Shoigu has despatched forces to try to take credit score for taking Bakhmut, by closing out these previous few metropolis blocks.
- The one factor that issues is symbolism, not precise accomplishments. Prigozhin doesn’t care concerning the issues on the flanks as a result of he has little interest in holding Bakhmut. He himself admitted that “the village of Bakhmut is of no strategic significance for additional progress to the west.” He has repeatedly acknowledged that Wagner is an offensive group. He doesn’t do protection. So as soon as he takes these previous few remaining blocks, he’ll declare superb victory, Putin can have one thing to brag about again house, they usually can all level fingers at one another when nobody holds the protection.
With no severe dedication from Ukrainian normal workers, there’s solely a lot these native counterattacks can accomplish. Offensive operations are extremely troublesome to maintain logistically, and we don’t even know if Ukraine has dedicated the manpower to push deeper into these flanks.
But it surely does present that Russia’s defensive strains may very well be a lot simpler to breach than anticipated. All of the trenches and defensive earthworks on the earth will not do Russia any good if their males run on the first signal of hassle. In the event that they’re working like this on the sight of a handful of charging Ukrainians, think about what they’ll do in the event that they see a legit combined-arms juggernaut, with dozens of automobiles, charging at them.
In the meantime, Russian forces in Klischiivka are struggling severe losses.
Ammunition may be briefly provide, nevertheless it’s nonetheless replaceable. Officers are a lot much less so. This decapitation strike was invaluable.
Dimitri of WarTranslated has been doing the important work of translating hours of Russian and Ukrainian video and audio through the invasion of Ukraine. He joins Markos and Kerry from London to speak about how he started this work by sifting by varied sources. He is among the solely folks translating data for English-speaking audiences. Dimitri’s adopted the battle for the reason that starting and has watched the evolution of the language and dispatches because the battle has progressed.
