With Benjamin Netanyahu insisting on “full victory” and Western allies reportedly shedding endurance because the offensive continues past the four-month mark, is “victory” truly attainable and what would that appear like?
Sky Information navy analyst Sean Bell says Hamas isn’t any match for the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) and Israel will prevail, however the true query is what their metrics for fulfillment appear like.
Eliminating Hamas will likely be tough, as fighters may mix in with the civilian inhabitants. And there are experiences that 80% of tunnels are nonetheless in Hamas fingers.
“The inhabitants has been squeezed into the south of Gaza, on Israeli directions,” Bell mentioned, with greater than one million folks now within the southern metropolis of Rafah, which seems to be Israel’s subsequent focus.
“The issue there’s how on Earth in that crowded space are the IDF going to discriminate between civilians, Hamas fighters and hostages?”
Netanyahu ‘hellbent’
With Hamas unlikely to be totally destroyed, Bell provides “you are by no means going to get whole victory”.
“So the query is how a lot you handle to realize,” he mentioned.
“In the mean time, Prime Minister Netanyahu appears hellbent on pursuing all of it the best way to the top of Rafah.”
About 84 hostages are believed to be nonetheless alive someplace in Gaza, he added, and the easiest way to safe their launch has to this point proved to be via negotiation.
However their prospects look “tremendously bleak” if the subsequent part of the Israeli offensive continues, Bell mentioned.
Waning assist
It due to this fact stays to be seen how a lot time will likely be given to Israel, as Western rhetoric shifts.
“At first of this marketing campaign, each the US and the UK gave unequivocal assist to Israel to do what it wanted to do,” Bell mentioned.
“The language is altering considerably now.”
Joe Biden mentioned the Israeli response has been “excessive”, whereas former presidential candidate Hilary Clinton talked about Netanyahu being “untrustworthy” (see our 3.50pm submit yesterday) and “needing to go”, Bell mentioned.
“That does not sound just like the consummate assist we have seen earlier than.”
The actual query, Bell mentioned, is what will likely be achieved from a navy perspective?
“Will they really exterminate Hamas? Will Israel be a safer place and what value will Palestinians pay?”
