Survey Says is a weekly column rounding up three of an important polling tendencies or information factors it is advisable find out about. You’ll additionally discover data-based updates on previous Day by day Kos reporting, plus a vibe test on a development that’s driving politics.
Dreaming of 2028
We’re barely two months into Donald Trump’s second presidency, and pollsters are already eyeing 2028.
A brand new verified-voter survey from Echelon Insights, a Republican polling agency, requested doubtless voters whom they’d vote for if the 2028 presidential major had been held as we speak. Amongst Democrats, former Vice President Kamala Harris comes out on prime, with 36% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters saying they’d again her. Coming in behind her is former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (10%), Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (9%), California Gov. Gavin Newsom (6%), and New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (5%), with the 13 different named choices coming in beneath 5%.
Throughout the aisle, Vice President JD Vance leads the pack with Republican voters, at 39%. After him comes Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (10%), former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (8%), and failed presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy (5%), with 10 different named choices pulling in lower than 5% help. After all, all this assumes that Trump’s menace of seeking an unconstitutional third term is all discuss. …
It’s no shock that Republican voters need to see Vance succeed Trump—even if the president is wishy-washy on the idea. The identical survey finds that almost all GOP voters (63%) say they’re extra loyal to Trump than to the Republican Social gathering, and it’s doubtless they see Vance as an extension of Trump.
In the meantime, on the Democratic facet, Harris retains a major group of backers regardless of being the primary Democratic presidential candidate to lose the favored vote since 2004. Her help might simply derive from her being probably the most well-recognized identify within the group since she simply ran for president and spent the earlier 4 years because the vice chairman. (A few of that can also be true for Vance.)
However she could also be ranked No. 1 as a result of voters see her as a dominating determine (keep in mind her debate performance towards Trump?). Shortly after the 2024 election, extra Harris voters blamed former President Joe Biden (24%) than they did Harris (6%) for Democrats’ loss that yr, in line with a YouGov poll for The Economist. And most Harris voters (53%) mentioned they blamed neither and that 2024 was “only a dangerous yr” for Democrats.
Echelon’s new findings observe with their mid-November poll, which discovered comparable Democratic help for Harris (41%) to run in 2028. In the meantime, a December survey from Echelon requested Democrats whether or not they wished Harris to proceed being “the main voice for Democrats.” Forty-nine p.c mentioned sure, whereas 36% mentioned they wished to see somebody new.
Belief in air journey dips
Roughly half a dozen deadly airplane crashes have occurred since Trump retook the Oval Workplace, and it seems to be swaying Individuals’ notion of how secure planes are.
A majority of adults (64%) nonetheless charge touring by aircraft as “considerably” or “very” secure, in line with a brand new ballot from the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research—however that’s down 7 proportion factors from January 2024.
Unbiased voters’ confidence in air journey has taken the largest hit. Sixty-one p.c known as touring by aircraft very or considerably secure in 2024, however now it’s fallen 18 factors, to 43%. It’s a stark distinction from the slight decreases seen amongst Democrats (a 7-point drop) and Republicans (a 1-point drop).
The general public’s decreased confidence could also be tied to the Trump administration making an attempt to shirk responsibility for the crashes which have occurred on its watch. Earlier than January’s aircraft crash close to Washington, D.C., where 67 people were killed, the final main deadly passenger-jet crash occurred in 2009. And Trump and his deeply unqualified Cupboard have tried guilty the crash on the whole lot from former President Joe Biden’s administration to workplace diversity policies.
Nevertheless, the survey finds that Individuals have probably the most confidence in pilots (84%) and the least in federal authorities companies (55%) to keep up air security.
When you or a liked one have an upcoming flight, these numbers shouldn’t be trigger for concern. Regardless of the newest crashes, experts say business flights are nonetheless among the many most secure journey choices.
Even the AP-NORC survey confirmed that Individuals nonetheless belief planes general. Whereas adults rated strolling (65%) the most secure transportation methodology, planes (64%) and automobiles (63%) weren’t far behind it, regardless of that driving is significantly more dangerous.
Little belief for Musk
Poll after poll reveals that Individuals despise Elon Musk—and perhaps all billionaires—but his affect throughout the Trump administration is increasing.
Not too long ago, Trump granted Musk’s advisory fee, often known as the Division of Authorities Effectivity, entry to tax data for thousands and thousands of Individuals—and other people aren’t snug with it. Fifty-four p.c of Individuals don’t belief Musk with “delicate authorities information,” in comparison with 39% who do belief him with it, in line with new YouGov polling.
Mistrust of Musk runs deeper as effectively.
A majority of Individuals (51%) don’t belief the mega-billionaire to resolve which congressionally authorised funds ought to be rescinded, in line with YouGov. The pollster additionally finds that 57% of Individuals are involved about conflicts of curiosity stemming from Musk’s involvement with DOGE, though it remains unclear if any exist.
Nevertheless, all three findings roughly replicate Musk’s favorability ranking: 52% unfavorable and 42% favorable, in line with YouGov. And since every polling merchandise mentions Musk by identify, it’s laborious to untangle how a lot Individuals’ perceptions of Musk are influencing their responses to the thought of what he’s doing. Asking Individuals whether or not they help giving delicate information to “an advisory fee” (with out mentioning DOGE or Musk) would possibly fetch greater approval. Or decrease. In any case, it’s potential that Musk supporters may not again his actions if his identify weren’t hooked up to them.
It is rather doubtless the mega-billionaire and his entourage can entry your Social Safety quantity, checking account info, the names and ages of your youngsters, and extra, in line with Social Security Works, an advocacy group that desires to increase Social Safety.
And we all know Individuals are deeply concerned about how their information is shared. A 2023 research by the Pew Research Center found that Individuals—and significantly Republicans—are frightened about how the federal government makes use of the information it collects from them.
Assuming these figures stay correct as we speak, it’s doubtless that as extra folks be taught simply how a lot entry Musk and his youthful followers possess, his favorability will dip additional.
Any updates?
Vibe test
Since retaking the White Home, Trump’s approval ranking has been regular, in line with Civiqs: 50% of registered voters disapprove of the job he’s doing as president, whereas 46% approve, as of Friday.
Nevertheless, different latest surveys present Trump’s approval on the decline, suggesting his honeymoon period is over. On Thursday, CNN’s Harry Enten noted that 4 pollsters had Trump’s internet approval ranking underwater: CNN/SSRS, Gallup, Quinnipiac University, and The Washington Post/Ipsos. In every survey, between 44% to 47% of respondents authorised of the job Trump’s doing as president, however a bigger proportion disapproved.
There are a number of believable causes for the decline, nevertheless it appears Individuals are involved with a lot of Trump’s actions in office—e.g., pardoning these concerned within the Jan. 6, 2021, revolt—and are especially perturbed by these spearheaded by Musk.
Andrew Mangan contributed analysis.
