Within the first days of the counteroffensive in early June, Ukraine launched an ill-fated assault at Novopokrovka which ended with a variety of automobiles caught in an in depth minefield being hit by Russian artillery. Among the many automobiles hit have been the first Leopard 2 tank lost in the war and a Bradley fighting vehicle. That assault was paired with one other at Robotyne, about 9 kilometers to the west. The string of losses there supplied photographs and video that Russia would use for months. From all angles. And altitudes. Lengthy after a lot of the automobiles had truly been hauled away for repairs.
These early losses on the highway to Robotyne appeared to come back with only a few positive aspects. Little or no floor exchanged fingers, and if there have been matching Russian losses, they weren’t apparent. The state of affairs at Robotyne appeared, in technical phrases, dangerous.
In the meantime, Ukraine had prolonged its counteroffensive to a variety of areas scattered throughout 150 kilometers of the Zaporizhzhia entrance. At a few of these different places, progress appeared to come back way more shortly. Neskuchne and Novodarivka, Storozheve and Blahodatne, Makarivka and Rivnopil, Staromaiorske and Urozhaine: All of those cities have been liberated by Ukraine. Whereas progress appeared gradual, that wasn’t dangerous work for 3 months of grinding it out toe-to-toe with the very best defenses Russia may assemble.
So why, when it was time to double down, did Ukraine transfer again to Robotyne?
It’s not that the world south of Velyka Novosilka, the place Ukraine made all that good progress, was deserted. Forces are nonetheless preventing there, and close to Vuhledar, and at Pyatykhatky on the western finish of the road (which Ukraine additionally liberated, together with Lobkove, within the first two weeks of the counteroffensive).
However when it got here to sending in reserve items and concentrating drive, Ukraine in the end determined to concentrate on Robotyne, the scene of these early losses, moderately than in any of the areas the place they’d liberated extra floor.
So … why Robotyne?
As each Kos and RO37 have identified a number of instances, Robotyne is alongside the clearest path to the town of Tokmak. At that location, nearly each main freeway and rail line in southern Ukraine meets, making Tokmak a important distribution and transport hub. Whether or not they’re going east or west, nearly every little thing Russia strikes round southern Ukraine goes via this location and liberating it will simply be Ukraine’s greatest accomplishment for the reason that liberation of Kherson.
However to get to Tokmak, Ukraine not solely has to get via the a number of trenches of the so-called “Surovikin Defensive Line,” it must crack and extra ring of fortifications that fully encircles Tokmak like a medieval walled city.
And if all these highways and rail traces join east to west via Tokmak, meaning these transportation traces additionally exist to Tokmak’s east and west. So why doesn’t Ukraine simply ignore Tokmak and take down Russian transportation at a location that doesn’t have an enormous encircling wall.
Why not someplace simpler?
The reply, in keeping with the analysts at RUSI, could also be that “simpler” was one thing of an phantasm all alongside. In response to their newest report, these positive aspects alongside the broader entrance have been hard-fought. “Makes an attempt at fast breakthrough have resulted in an unsustainable price of kit loss. Intentionally deliberate tactical actions have seen Ukrainian forces take Russian positions with small numbers of casualties,” they wrote. “Nonetheless, this strategy is gradual, with roughly 700–1,200 meters of progress each 5 days, permitting Russian forces to reset.
In different phrases, due to the protecting nature of Western gear and the ways being employed by Ukraine, they’re doing job of preserving their most precious asset” Ukrainian troopers.
However even when, in the very best of all circumstances, troopers who survive an encounter with a mine or drone in a Leopard tank or Bradley preventing car are prepared to return to the struggle inside days, their gear will not be. A lot of the broken Western gear must be laboriously retrieved from the sector, and repairs could also be happening as distant as Poland or Germany.
These areas south of Velyka Novosilka, whereas they might not have the clearly outlined car trenches and defensive pillboxes which are seen on elements of the Surovikin Line, nonetheless have plenty of treelines, small hills, and buildings, all of which give cowl for Russian forces. And at each level on the road, Russia has seeded intensive mine fields, so the thought of a “quick breakthrough” anyplace is an phantasm. As that very same RUSI report factors out, the factor that might assist Ukraine most can be a quicker method to get via these fields the place the hazard will not be solely mines, however drones and artillery engaged on automobiles choosing their method ahead.
The Ukrainian Basic Employees mentioned a number of instances that the early a part of the counteroffensive was a testing section, a time for Ukraine to push Russian troops at completely different factors of the road, feeling for a weak spot—like fishing round for a rotten tooth. If that was the case, the reply appears to have been clear sufficient: There aren’t any weak spots. Or not less than, there aren’t any spots so considerably weaker than others that it is smart to assault there, even when it means troops need to take longer routes to much less useful locations.
So Ukraine attacked at Robotyne, the place the Russian resistance was robust however the distance to essentially the most useful goal was minimal. That assault has been pricey, but it surely’s definitely potential to consider that it’s generated extra worth per gear loss than assaults to the east or west of that location. It’s additionally probably that the extra head-on strategy of coming via Robotyne matches the recommendation that NATO generals have given Ukraine.
Since Ukraine doubled down at Robotyne, they’ve liberated that metropolis and have moved quickly past it. As RO37 reported yesterday, Ukrainian forces moved previous the car trench northwest of Verbove and Ukrainian forces have truly occupied the personnel trench behind it. Experiences on Wednesday counsel that Ukraine could have prolonged that space of the captured line, or could have moved forces into the personnel trench at a second location.
Progress is being made—necessary progress. It’s onerous to say that on the price/profit curve, Robotyne turned out to be the candy spot. However possibly it was the spot that provided the best promise.
Ukraine continues to advance close to Verbove
Geolocated photographs of Ukrainian forces strolling round in an occupied part of the personnel trench close to Verbove have been confirmed. That implies that Ukraine has pushed via the minefield, cleared the car trench, and moved not less than some forces proper into the city. In the previous couple of hours, analysts have reported that Ukraine has expanded their space of management, At the least one supply signifies that Ukrainian forces have moved previous that trench and reached the sides of the city.
Nonetheless, the advance within the space continues to be coming with a value.
The burning tank on this video seems to be a British Challenger 2. If that’s the case, this is able to be solely the second Challenger misplaced in fight. Reportedly it was hit by artillery fireplace whereas clearing a path to a kind of defensive trenches. It appears unlikely that this tank is repairable, although the stowage system has prevented the type of explosion lifting the turret off so many Russian tanks.
However essentially the most notable factor could also be that Ukrainian forces are shifting previous that burning tank. That is clearly now within the backfield. And it’s not like there weren’t losses on the Russian facet as a result of … проклятие. Would you have a look at that.
All of the discuss how good Ukrainian counter-battery fireplace has turn out to be definitely appears to have paid off right here. And if that was a convoy of gasoline vans, properly, no Russian car drinks tonight.
Russia reportedly conducting one other spherical of mobilization
Vladimir Putin has reportedly ordered protection minister Sergei Shoigu to launch another round of mobilization. This time the Russians are taking pictures for 200,000 extra males. Based mostly on previous expertise, it may be anticipated that a few of these males can be hustled off to the entrance traces immediately, whereas some luckier fragment is shipped away for not less than just a few weeks of one thing approximating coaching.
Within the earlier spherical of mobilization, a few of these crimps have been used to assemble entire new items. That appears much less probably this time round, as Russia has a scarcity of each forces and gear. It appears extra probably that these newcomers can be used to fill out the depleted ranks in items the place a tank or armored car nonetheless exists, however the place seats are not full. Coaching any troops that stay in Russia can be made harder as a result of at this level, not solely has Russia sent training officers to the entrance, it has additionally kicked students out of its military academies early in an effort to fill depleted ranks.
So Putin will demand 200,000. Shoigu will get some fraction of that quantity. And a few fraction of that fraction will come galumphing as much as the entrance line in just a few weeks carrying paintball masks and galoshes. If Russian logistics can provide these males with weapons, ammunition, and a helmet, they might discover a place within the trenches south of Verbove in time to fulfill Ukraine’s subsequent assault.
Or they might signify such a pressure on Russia’s creaky logistics that they really overwhelm the Russian military’s capacity to maneuver the rest. We must always know quickly.
Anthony Blinken makes shock look in Ukraine
Sec. of State Tony Blinken was in Ukraine on Wednesday to debate America’s assist for Ukraine, and to fulfill with Ukraine’s most necessary ambassador.
Blinken can also be assembly with that different man. The much less cute one.
Throughout his go to, Blinken introduced that the US will ship a brand new help bundle to Ukraine valued at roughly $1 billion. Of this, $665.5 million is army help. The introduced record of things within the bundle consists of:
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120mm depleted uranium tank ammunition for Abrams tanks.
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Air protection gear.
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HIMARS ammunition.
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155mm and 105mm artillery ammunition.
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Anti-tank missiles.
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3 million rounds of small arms ammunition.
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Safe communications gear.
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Spare elements and upkeep gear.
You possibly can learn more great Ukraine coverage by each employees and group members here.
It’s the Ukraine Replace episode! Kerry interviews Markos to speak about what is going on in Ukraine, what must be carried out, and why the destiny of Ukraine is tied to democracy’s destiny in 2024.
