California has lengthy championed renewable power, however a change within the state’s insurance policies final yr has led to a pointy decline within the set up of residential rooftop photo voltaic within the state.
Hundreds of firms — together with installers, producers and distributors — are reeling from the new policy, which took impact in April and vastly decreased incentives that had inspired owners to put in photo voltaic panels. For the reason that change, gross sales of rooftop photo voltaic installations in California dropped as a lot as 85 percent in some months of 2023 from a yr earlier, in accordance with a report by Ohm Analytics, a analysis agency that tracks the photo voltaic market. Business teams mission that installations within the state will drop greater than 40 p.c this yr and proceed to say no via 2028.
“The photo voltaic installations are off a ton,” mentioned Michael Wara, a senior analysis scholar at Stanford Woods Institute for the Setting. “What’s occurring proper now could be a painful adjustment course of.”
Assemble Solar, a photo voltaic set up firm that’s primarily based in Reno, Nev., stopped doing enterprise in California after its gross sales dried up 4 months after the coverage started; executives mentioned the corporate was now focusing its efforts on Florida, North Carolina and Ohio.
“I had a really dismal pipeline and needed to make the choice to close down in California,” Thomas Devine, govt vice chairman of operations for Assemble Solar, mentioned. He added that the state’s rooftop insurance policies undercut its objective to successfully eradicate greenhouse fuel emissions by 2045. “These competing insurance policies are loopy,” he mentioned.
State officers chafe at the concept California is undercutting renewable power and have defended the coverage change, which lowered the worth of the credit owners with new installations obtain for the facility they ship to the grid by 75 p.c. They’ve argued that the previous guidelines, which nonetheless apply to techniques put in earlier than April, provided too beneficiant a subsidy, serving to largely prosperous owners. Consequently, lower-income individuals who couldn’t afford panels had been successfully left bearing extra of the price of sustaining the state’s electrical energy system.
“California has finished extra for the photo voltaic trade than every other state within the nation by offering billions in rebates and incentives since 2006,” the state’s Public Utilities Fee, which oversees rooftop photo voltaic and investor-owned utilities, mentioned in a press release.
States throughout the nation have wrestled with how one can compensate shoppers for the electrical energy their rooftop photo voltaic techniques ship to the grid. And officers have usually seemed to California for steerage.
Many states, together with California earlier than it modified its coverage, usually enable owners to obtain credit which might be roughly equal to the retail electrical energy price for the power their techniques ship to the grid. This has by no means sat effectively with most utility firms, who contend that providing owners a one-for-one credit score for photo voltaic power overstates the worth of that electrical energy. Utilities say they may purchase electrical energy for lots much less on the wholesale market or by producing it themselves.
On the entire, renewable power is rising and now supplies greater than a fifth of the nation’s electrical energy. In California, renewable sources produce greater than a 3rd of electrical energy.
However progress of carbon-free sources has develop into bumpy as regulators, utilities, shoppers and renewable power firms struggle over its monetary advantages. They’re additionally attempting to determine methods to not simply add tools that may generate electrical energy but additionally batteries that may retailer it as a result of photo voltaic and wind power are intermittent.
California officers word that at the same time as they decreased the compensation for rooftop photo voltaic power they’ve provided residents extra incentives to put in batteries. Batteries, they are saying, may also help present power to the grid when it’s most wanted, not simply in the midst of the day when California sometimes has a surplus. The units may also present energy throughout blackouts.
“Right now, California has an amazing want for extra power storage and our state should transition incentives towards storage applied sciences to help reliability, allow polluting fuel services to be retired and relieve stress on electrical energy charges,” mentioned David Hochschild, chair of the California Power Fee, which broadly oversees the power trade.
Since regulators put in impact the brand new rooftop photo voltaic coverage, the share of shoppers shopping for photo voltaic panels with a battery elevated to as a lot as 50 p.c, from as little as 5 p.c earlier than the adjustments.
However batteries are costly, particularly at a time of excessive rates of interest. With out federal tax incentives, a photo voltaic and battery system prices $33,700 on common, in contrast with $22,700 for techniques that don’t embrace batteries, in accordance with EnergySage, a buying web site that compares rooftop photo voltaic panels.
Installers and owners say investing in rooftop photo voltaic techniques is troublesome to justify financially with out entry to satisfactory electrical energy credit. California’s choice to scale back the motivation has elevated the period of time it takes for a photo voltaic system to pay for itself to at the least eight years, up from about 5.
The nation’s largest residential photo voltaic firm, Sunrun, which relies in San Francisco, minimize about 2,000 jobs after California regulators decreased the rooftop incentives.
“It’s very unlucky from the attitude that it’s at a time when the planet’s on hearth,” mentioned Mary Powell, Sunrun’s chief govt. However she added that due to her firm’s dimension and nationwide operations, it has been capable of take up a lot of the affect.
Different companies face greater challenges.
About 4 years in the past, Amy Atchley began Amy’s Roofing and Photo voltaic. Earlier than California modified its coverage, solar energy gross sales drove greater than 55 p.c of her enterprise, which she runs together with her husband, Brian, in Petaluma, north of San Francisco. For the reason that coverage went into impact, photo voltaic gross sales fell to 45 p.c. To scale back prices, Ms. Atchley mentioned she sometimes really useful that her prospects set up photo voltaic panels once they had been additionally changing their roofs.
“California needs to be doing every thing in our energy to develop into a clear power state,” Ms. Atchley mentioned. “However the momentum has been halted.”
Providing power credit to owners with rooftop photo voltaic was a central part of laws, accepted when Arnold Schwarzenegger was governor, that aimed so as to add a million photo voltaic roofs, cut back electrical payments and struggle local weather change. The state met the roof objective in 2019 and now has panels on 1.8 million rooftops.
Some photo voltaic specialists declare that the brand new California coverage is flawed as a result of it doesn’t adequately keep in mind the environmental worth rooftop photo voltaic panels present.
“You’re valuing the solar energy the identical as fossil gas energy, in order that doesn’t make sense,” mentioned Yogi Goswami, an engineering professor and director of the Clear Power Analysis Middle on the College of South Florida. “We should always have given some worth to the environmental issue.”
By reducing the motivation at a time when the world wants extra clear power, “they’re making it that rather more troublesome,” he added.
Nationally, rooftop photo voltaic grew an estimated 13 p.c final yr, however this yr it might decline by 11.5 p.c, in accordance with the Photo voltaic Power Industries Affiliation, which attributes the drop primarily to California’s coverage change.
Pacific Fuel & Electrical, California’s largest utility, mentioned that rooftop photo voltaic connections to its system reached a document excessive final yr, up 20 p.c from 2022. That will have been as a result of many householders rushed to put in photo voltaic panels earlier than the brand new coverage took impact in April.
“At PG&E, we acknowledge the numerous function rooftop photo voltaic performs in California’s clear power future,” Carla Peterman, PG&E’s govt vice chairman for company affairs and a former state utility regulator, mentioned in a press release. “We’re proud to have interconnected over 750,000 personal photo voltaic prospects, greater than every other U.S. utility.”
Rooftop photo voltaic proponents have requested the courts to intervene, and others have lobbied regulators and state lawmakers to reverse course or danger shedding extra jobs and firms.
“The query is, who survives this?” mentioned Bernadette Del Chiaro, govt director of the California Photo voltaic and Storage Affiliation. “What number of companies make it via this transition?”
Some power specialists mentioned that rooftop photo voltaic might regain a few of its monetary enchantment as California raises electrical energy charges, that are already among the many highest within the nation. The utilities fee lately accepted greater charges for patrons of the investor-owned utilities, Pacific Fuel & Electrical, Southern California Edison and San Diego Fuel & Electrical.
Clients of PG&E will quickly pay about 45 cents per kilowatt-hour, up from about 35 cents. That works out to about $250 a month for 571 kilowatt-hours, the common utilization for houses in California. By comparability, the nationwide common retail electrical energy price was 16.2 cents in October.
Extra Californians would possibly set up photo voltaic panels and batteries to not earn credit for the surplus energy the panels produce however merely to scale back their dependence on utilities. However that possibility would largely be a bonus that prosperous owners are capable of take quite than these with restricted means, Mr. Wara of Stanford mentioned. He added: “There’s a huge affordability problem for California electrical energy.”
