Survey Says is a weekly collection rounding up an important polling traits or information factors you should learn about, plus a vibe test on a development that’s driving politics.
Republicans flip-flop-flip on same-sex marriage
June 26 marked the 10-year anniversary of the Supreme Courtroom ruling in Obergefell v. Hodges, which legalized same-sex marriage nationwide. The courtroom was catching as much as the American public’s altering attitudes on the problem. However now these attitudes are altering once more, no less than amongst Republicans.
In 1996, simply 27% of Individuals thought same-sex marriages had been legitimate and worthy of the identical authorized rights as heterosexual marriages, in line with Gallup. By Might 2015, the month earlier than the Obergefell ruling, that share had slowly and fairly steadily risen to 60%. Now it’s 68%.
Even Republicans got here round on the problem. In 1996, simply 16% supported same-sex marriage, however in 2021 and 2022, their assist hit a excessive of 55%. Since then, nonetheless, it has tumbled. This yr, simply 41% of Republicans assist same-sex marriage.
As a result of 88% of Democrats assist same-sex marriage, there’s now a shocking 47-percentage-point hole between the events—the biggest since Gallup has tracked the query. Oddly, although, this homophobic backsliding appears contained to Republicans. Independents assist same-sex marriage at practically the identical degree as Democrats do—76%—and it’s grown since 2022, when assist was at 72%.
This Republican backlash is probably going the results of the GOP’s viciously destructive assaults on LGBTQ+ individuals and rights extra broadly. Round 2022, when the Republican voters was most supportive of same-sex marriage, their celebration’s leaders coalesced round smearing queer individuals and their Democratic allies as “groomers,” reviving a homophobic lie about queer adults sexually abusing kids.
Within the fall of 2022, Republicans underperformed within the midterm elections. However moderately than study from their bigoted errors, the celebration has leaned into them, additional demonizing one of many LGBTQ+ neighborhood’s most marginalized teams: transgender individuals, and trans youth particularly. Final yr, then-candidate Donald Trump and his fellow Republicans viciously attacked trans people, making an attempt to scare voters into backing the GOP.
And it’d’ve labored. The electoral success of the anti-trans message is disputable. Within the days earlier than the 2024 election, 80% of probably voters wished each Democratic and Republican candidates to focus much less on transgender points and extra on the financial system, in line with a poll from Data for Progress.
However, it appears clear that the Republican Occasion’s anti-LGBTQ+ messaging is igniting a backlash, although it stays to be seen how far this wildfire of hate will unfold. In any case, the Supreme Courtroom is now way more conservative than it was in 2015, and its right-wing majority has evinced little respect for precedent or civil rights.
A giant miss within the Huge Apple
This previous Tuesday night time, Zohran Mamdani, a state lawmaker and self-described democratic socialist, pulled off what seems to be a shock victory in New York Metropolis’s Democratic mayoral main in opposition to disgraced former Gov. Andrew Cuomo. And maybe none had been extra shocked than pollsters, which, with one exception, predicted a big Cuomo win.
In polls performed for the reason that begin of April, Cuomo led Mamdani by a mean of 14 factors within the first spherical of town’s ranked-choice voting course of. And but Mamdani ended up profitable the primary spherical by 7 points, with 93% of votes counted as of Friday.
Native elections are notoriously hard to poll. Even so, a 21-point miss is a horrible displaying.
Many pollsters say the error mainly stemmed from surveys together with solely those that’d voted in earlier primaries, which triggered them to overlook first-time voters this yr. Only one pollster—the left-leaning Public Coverage Polling—confirmed Mamdani main the primary spherical of voting. As a result of PPP precisely acknowledged that Mamdani was energizing younger and first-time voters, they gave further weight to these teams and included individuals no matter whether or not they’d voted beforehand.
“Tens of 1000’s of individuals voted of their first Mayoral election this yr,” the agency stated in a statement revealed Tuesday night time, after Mamdani’s presumptive victory. “We discovered those that didn’t vote in 2021 breaking 63-18 for Mamdani. We included them in our ballot.”
The first’s ultimate outcomes are anticipated on July 1, after ranked-choice tabulations happen. If Mamdani has certainly gained, he’d face Mayor Eric Adams within the basic election this November. Adams, who ditched the Democratic Occasion and is operating as an impartial, has an atrocious approval rating largely because of him buddying as much as Trump, which he seemingly did in order that the federal authorities would drop his corruption indictment. That obvious quid professional quo might preserve Adams out of jail, nevertheless it might additionally kick him out of Gracie Mansion.
In November, Mamdani would additionally go up in opposition to Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa, who based the volunteer crime-prevention group Guardian Angels and misplaced the 2021 mayoral race by nearly 40 points. He might also face … Andrew Cuomo, who refuses to rule out running as an impartial, as a result of this asshole is identical to that.
Nonetheless, Mamdani could be the probably front-runner for the mayorship for the reason that Democratic candidate is often the heavy favourite. He’s additionally introduced collectively a fresh, cross-cultural, multiracial, class-spanning coalition because of his relentless campaigning over fixing town’s cost-of-living disaster.
Plus, dude cuts a stellar ad:
Iran, Iran so distant (from my lately held political views)
America first, not. The Republican base seems to be following Trump wherever he stumbles, even when it’s into the center of a battle between Israel and Iran.
Days earlier than Trump’s choice to attack three nuclear sites in Iran final weekend, a YouGov/Economist ballot discovered that only 16% of Americans supported the U.S. getting concerned within the battle. That included simply 23% of Republicans.
However in a YouGov/Economist poll fielded June 20 to 23—i.e., proper earlier than, throughout, and after the strikes—29% of Individuals supported the U.S. attacking Iran’s nuclear websites, pushed largely by a majority of Republicans (57%) who supported the strikes. Simply 9% of Democrats and 21% of independents felt the identical manner. This icy response within the broader voters might have persuaded the Pentagon to confusingly declare that regardless of straight attacking a hostile international nation amid an ongoing battle, it didn’t want to be a part of that battle.
And now a newer poll, performed by Quinnipiac College fully after the U.S. strikes on Iran, finds that 81% of Republican voters assist the U.S. becoming a member of Israel’s assaults on Iran. Speak about a flip-flop. In the meantime, Democrats and independents didn’t change their beliefs that a lot: 75% and 60%, respectively, oppose the assaults.
There’s much less want for the GOP to fabricate consent today. Not solely do they not likely care what the general public desires, additionally they have a base of voters keen to comply with them wherever, ideological consistency be damned.
Any updates?
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Individuals hate Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, however they’re positive to hate them as soon as it comes time for back-to-school procuring. Early customers are already getting slapped with larger costs, in line with a new poll from Morning Seek the advice of. Among the many 34% of American dad and mom who’ve began back-to-school procuring, 62% say garments are costlier than final yr, whereas majorities additionally say the identical factor about electronics (61%), house items (61%), faculty provides (57%), and books (54%). Whereas most (59%) maintain inflation accountable for the upper costs, greater than 1 in 3 blame tariffs straight.
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The paywall: it, you hate it, you attempt to discover the data elsewhere as a result of now all the pieces is a subscription. New information from Pew Research Center backs that up: 53% of Individuals who hit a paywall will seek for the information elsewhere, whereas one other 32% will simply quit trying. Just one% of Individuals who bump right into a paywall pays for entry. Bother is, information ain’t free, and promoting {dollars} are withering. So please, in the event you can, chip in to Daily Kos and preserve the location paywall-free. You’ll be able to even purchase your own subscription, ditch the advertisements, and help Daily Kos fight Trump’s Justice Department because it comes after us.
Vibe test
The information is a foul place today, and that’s dangerous information for Trump in the case of all his favourite coverage subjects. The president is underwater on his dealing with of inflation, commerce, the financial system, and even immigration, in line with election analyst Nate Silver’s polling averages.
